两个世纪的政治逻辑与历史轮回----中美两国是否终有一战？

China Political Logic and Historical Reincarnation

----Is there a battle between China and the United States?

中美是否终有一战？

吴称谋 Wu Chenmou

 

中国进入近现代史以来，从1838年到2018经历了四个戊戌年。如果深入剖析四个特殊年份所发生的历史事件，探寻这些历史现象背后的演变逻辑，人们就不难看出历史脉动的规律。从而能提纲携领地，清晰地分析出180年来，在东亚这片土地上发生的各种复杂的历史现象。从2018年开始，中国再一次迎来历史变革的动荡期。海内外华人很有必要从历史中寻找出社会演变的规律，为中国最终走出帝制社会的历史阴影而把准脉动，看准方向，找准目标，认准策略。

吴称谋：论台湾的战略地位与未来（修订稿）

美国与中华民国恢复邦交与实行“一中两府”的意义

台湾是位于太平洋中的一座海岛，与中国大陆最短距离约72海里。台湾岛的形状既像一片修长的树叶，又像一只跃出海平面的海豚。在过去漫长的陆权时代，台湾是一个完全可以被忽略的偏远海岛。然而随着海权时代[i] 的来临，由于台湾岛处在太平洋西北第一岛链[ii] 的中间重要位置，其地理位置的重要性日益增强，以至于如今完全不可忽视，成为全球战略各方博弈较量的必争之地了。

1942年，美国的斯皮克曼提出了“边缘地带理论” (Rimland theory) [iii]。他在《边缘地带论》写道：“中国将毫无疑问地成为远东地区的统治性强权，前提是它能够达成真正的统一并且日本的军事力量被彻底摧毁。而能够平衡中国大陆强权的只有北部的俄罗斯。如果西方各大强权还想在这一地区保持影响力，它们就必须为自己的海上力量寻求岛屿基地。” 后来的历史证明，当年斯皮克曼的战略眼光是犀利而准确的。

黎智英：狮子山下的英雄

把我们惊醒的是突如其来的国安法，梦不瞬间崩塌，明天会是一场场的离别，不用纠缠，我也不打扰你们了。我心里有驱不散的惆怅，原来以为煲底见。但人生太短暂，你们的时光走得太匆忙，路还未走完，心就老了，瞬间颜容已沧桑，太累了吧，也许你们做的已足够。艳阳影树红花飘摇，趁景色还美丽，时光还和煦，腾出双手拥抱自己，庆幸你们贡献过，你们做的已足够，不用回头望了，向前走吧。昨天已过去，过去不该是将来的包袱，前面有太阳花海的灿烂等着你们。让伤心烦恼离去，不，你们还年轻，有一双飞翔的翅膀，还等什么，飞吧！

Wu Chenmou: Global Strategy and The Virus of Communism

The Communist Virus

     The history of humankind has developed into the twentieth century, and the world's political landscape has undergone tremendous changes due to World War I and II. Its far-reaching influence has continued to the present. After the First World War, the colonial predatory capitalist development basically ended. The modern world's major religious issues and ideologies almost all started to manifest after World War II. At the same time, the First World War spurred the rise of Communism in Europe, especially after the October riots of the Russian Bolshevik Party in 1917 that produced the first Communist totalitarian state. According to historical research, Communism originated first from Marx's "Specter," that Marx clearly stated in <The Communist Manifesto>. Later history proved that the utopian communist system that led to the road of slavery had the looming shadow of <The Communist Manifesto>. In addition, the First World War also promoted the Islamic Religion to break out from the Arabian Peninsula and started to expand malignantly. At the same time, it also gave birth to a cancerous root for the century-old conflict and confrontation in the Middle East that is difficult to eradicate.

天问印书馆 征文启事

《天问系列丛书》总序

 

  “究天人之际，通古今之变。”是汉朝司马迁的治史名言。天问学会（Tian Wen Institute）是在美国注册的NGO学术机构，其成员为当代华语世界的优秀专家学者。天问的成员在多元历史文化的研究过程中，凭着读书人的良知和使命，究天人之道，辨社会之机，试图为中国的社会转型和民族进步奉献出才智。

  中国近现代史是上下五千年历史长河中的拐点时期，其超复杂性和超广泛性，使得它在历史大变局中有着非常重要的特殊地位。历史究竟是什么，历史就是现在与过去之间永无休止的对话，这乃是人类的一个永恒课题。天问学会之所以重点研究中国近现代史，不是因为它的辉煌，也不是缘于它的精彩，而是由于它关系到中国文明的兴衰、民族发展的方向，人性的彰显与道德的拯救等诸多的问题。

  上溯两个世纪以来，几代华人学界先贤们，不管生在何时，无论身处何地，他们先天下之忧而忧，后天下之乐而乐，坚守自由之思想，秉承独立之精神，已经为中国的社会大转型奉献出了毕生的智慧与心血。天问学会以客观、理性、多元、共融为宗旨，通过近现代史上的不同主题和特殊年份，将学界先贤和同仁们有专题性和代表性的优秀文章和学术著作，通过天问出版社的《天问系列丛书》，汇聚成文集或专著作公益性出版。

  天问的学者团队致力于在华语世界的历史文化研究领域，将零散的火花聚成火炬，闪烁的智慧汇成智库，分散的能量聚为动力，为当下和未来的中国社会大转型作不懈努力！

欢迎海内外各界朋友与本社联络！

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Wu Chenmou: 全球战略与共产病毒

Communist Virus

 

 吴称谋  David Wu

 

人类历史发展到了二十世纪，世界政治格局因两次世界大战而发生了巨大变化，其深远的影响直至当下。第一次世界大战后，基本结束了殖民掠夺式的资本主义发展之路。世界的主要宗教问题和意识形态几乎都在第一次世界大战后形成基本架构。与此同时，第一次世界大战促使了共产主义在欧洲的兴起，特别是1917年俄国布尔什维克党的十月暴动后产生了第一个共产极权国家。据历史考证，共产主义最初源于马克思的“幽灵”说，马克思在《共产党宣言》里面有明确的表述。后来的历史证明，通往奴役之路的乌托邦共产制度，都有着《共产党宣言》若隐若现的影子。另外，第一次世界大战也促进了伊斯兰教冲出阿拉伯半岛而极度扩张，同时也为中东地区长达百年的冲突和对抗埋下了难以根除的祸因。

The history of humankind has developed into the twentieth century, and the world’s political landscape has undergone tremendous changes due to World War I and II, and its far-reaching influence has continued to the present. After the First World War, the colonial predatory capitalist development basically ended. The major religious issues and ideologies of the modern world almost all started to manifest after the First World War. At the same time, World War I spurred the rise of Communism in Europe, especially after the October riots of the Russian Bolshevik Party in 1917 that produced the first Communist totalitarian state. According to historical research, Communism first was originated from Marx’s “Specter” that Marx clearly stated in <The Communist Manifesto>. Later history proved that the utopian communist system leading to the road of slavery had the looming shadow of <The Communist Manifesto>. In addition, World War I also promoted the Islamic Religion to break out from the Arabian Peninsula and started to expand malignantly. At the same time, it also gave birth to a cancerous root for the century-old conflict and confrontation in the Middle East that is difficult to eradicate.

Wu Chenmou: The Call of Modern China's History

Chenmou Wu: The Call of History of Modern China

It has been nearly half a century since the Cultural Revolution broke out in the 1960s. The nationwide movement was under "Innocence in Revolution, Rebellion by Justified", so the whole mainland suffered unprecedented devastation. Until Mao's death and the collapse of the "Gang of Four", the Cultural Revolution went broken, and the wheel of history led into a dangerous path. Since then, China has changed dramatically in the past half-century from poverty, a weak country, to the world's second-largest economy. If it put this period into the long history, it will be too short, like as short as a mere snap of fingers. Within this short fifty years, it seems to repeatedly verify an old saying in an ancient book of <Zuo Zhuang>, "Although prosper rapidly, but also die suddenly".