2023新春詩詞對聯

  吳稱謀

         古有，朱門酒肉臭，路有凍死骨。商女不知亡國恨，隔江猶唱後庭花。

         今有，百姓悲泣具縞素，戲子華堂唱歡歌。世道黑暗苦黎民，顴貴之家驕寵物。

         2023癸卯年，故國之大地，新春無新意，新年無新氣。不揭露鞭撻偽善，何以弘揚真情？

         有詩曰：除夕春晚頌浮華，戲子輕佻盡虛誇，一切罪禍自權毒，何時開啟自由花。

《十二生肖年》

《十二生肖年》

鼠喜牛奔先，猛虎疫情延。

玉兔祥龍呤，蛇隱神馬翩；

三羊開泰吉，靈猴鬧九天。

金雞報春曉，寵狗有人緣；

福豬最招財，十二生肖全。

周而又復始，上下五千年。

     對聯：「鳥人籠」

鳥在籠中，恨關羽不能張飛；

人活黨下，罵毛賊不如蔣公。

籠中鳥🦜，收起羽毛🪶而無法展翅高飛，

黨下人😈，蒙閉嘴眼👀而難以明辨是非。

《民泣戲子笑 ---- 批判2023春晚 》

《暗世浮華戲子妖》

除夕京都響欢歌，九州內外縞素飄。

曾經慰問揭鍋蓋，如今龜縮視頻聊。

戲子那管世道黑，鶯歌燕舞醉今宵。

百姓疾苦誰在意？唯有遥呼古舜堯。

天下縞素

街頭煙火

脂批本的楔子和批语揭秘《红楼梦》作者真相

吴称谋

    

    当下红学的研究范围广泛而深邃，喧闹而繁杂，如成书年代，寓意主旨，历史背景，人物原型及原作者等都存在一定的争议。这一切皆缘于《石头记》最初是一部无名氏作品，成书后又长期被列为禁书的缘故。笔者发表了两篇考证《红楼梦》作者的文章后，逐渐引起了海内外人士的关注，开始有同仁与笔者进行商榷。笔者用小说具有的鲜明特点：宗教信仰，文学造诣，批判思想，上层场景，民俗方言，作为考证原作者的五个基本标准进行推理论证，获得了一些红学研究者和爱好者的赞赏和支持。

    可以认为，《红楼梦》作者究竟是谁这桩历史公案，已经成为人们最关注的一个红学研究课题。为了突破已持续百年的考证困境，研究者应该用立体思维和时空景象，全方位模拟小说创作时的历史背景和人物场景，才能清晰地找出真正的作者。这既是对《石头记》作者的著作权的应有尊重，也是对知识产权的有力捍卫。不仅如此，严谨考证是为了追求历史真相，客观分析更是为了维护原创正义。

    当下自媒体时代，红学领域乱象丛生，奇谈怪论充彻网络。有些人为了蹭热度或搏眼球，推销胡编乱造的书，提高小视频的点击率，故意搅混水掺沙子。例如，有人胡诌《石头记》原作者可能是满清的皇子皇孙。试问，那些生活在北京皇城根下，或许一辈子从未到过江南的北方人，怎么可能写得出满纸江南韵味的《石头记》？乾隆皇帝算是一个聪明绝顶的满人，据说他一生写了五万首诗词，似乎没有一首流传至今的佳作。在清初，对于刚刚入主中原的满人来说，汉语是他们的第一外语，极少数满人能勉强看懂汉文就已经很不错了。何谈能写出中国文学史上的巅峰之作呢？

Chenmou Wu: A Letter from President Joe Biden

 

A letter from  President Joe Biden to Chenmou Wu

信件中文翻译：

华盛顿白宫

2022年11月9日

致特拉华州贝尔市  吴称谋 先生 

亲爱的吴先生：

        感谢你给我写信，关于美国的外交政策。

        当今世界所面临的挑战，表明各族裔是如此的紧密相连，所有人的命运是那么的休戚与共。美国不能在世界舞台上缺席，因为从饥荒、气候变化到战争及流行病等共同问题，没有哪个国家可以单独解决。

         美国的政治和经济领导地位，将始终植根于其至上的价值观：捍卫民主、促进自由、提供机会，保障人权，尊重法治，并以尊严待人。

        本届政府已经将与盟友和伙伴密切合作、保护自由、主权以及共同未来，恢复到了美国外交政策的中心地位。美国政府将继续声援乌克兰，让俄罗斯付出代价，并促进对乌克兰人民犯下的暴行和战争罪行进行问责。

        我们正在领导一项全球粮食安全和饥饿的努力。我们正在以冒险的气候协议（的减排计划）来提供历史性的投资，并向全球做出承诺来扭转气候破坏的趋势。

        虽然美国将以外交手段为主导，但我将毫不犹豫地捍卫我们的人民、至上的价值观以及切身的利益，包括在必要时使用武力。我们将始终与世界各地的朋友，以及那些致力于建立国际和平坚实基础的人们站在一起。

        在努力面对当今时代的挑战时，你的建议将会用于我的决策。愿上帝保佑美国，愿上帝保护我们的军队、外交官，以及所有在危险中服务的人。

        真诚的，

        乔 · 拜登

Attached is the excerpt from Wu's letter: 

Dear President Biden：                                               

October 10, 2022

 

I am Chenmou Wu, an independent Chinese scholar, and a sworn-in U.S. citizen recently. The United States opened a door of freedom for me to come here as a visiting scholar to do academic exchanges on East Asian cultures at a famous University in 2011. Now, I live in the New Castle county of Delaware, which is your home state.  

.......

President Biden, you have dedicated your life to the American people since you became a senator at Delaware state in 1973. Until today, the door of your sincere service has always been open for different races; moreover, it is wider, more accessible, and unobstructed than before. There are many touching stories circulating in various communities about your great jobs. For example, a 70-year-old Chinese neighbor said that many years ago his mother-in-law encountered a bit of trouble getting a visa to visit him. In desperation, he wrote a letter to you for help. Through your compassionate assistance, they finally had a reunion. I heard this story at his home in Newark when you won the presidential election in 2020. As a resident of Delaware, I am honored and proud of you as the 46th President of the United States.  

It is indisputable that the United States and China are the most important bilateral relationship in the world. On September 21, 2022, you slammed Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in a speech to the United Nations. Democratic countries should unite to prevent this tragedy from happening. Peace-loving people around the world, as well as many Chinese people, agree and appreciate your attitude. As a Chinese person, I would like to express my great gratitude to you and to the White House Office. Many Chinese people sincerely believe your words will never fall short anytime. 

.......

Dear President Biden, once you shared a very philosophical quote at a family ceremony: “Courage is the most important virtue because none of the rest of the virtues will matter without courage.” Your mother once educated you with these words in your early years, and it was posted by my friend in an essay who met you in 2020. 

I believe this phrase must have successfully affected your life. On October 4 of The Hill News, “The president has said this himself: He intends to run in 2024,” said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre. As I read this exciting news, I suppose your courage in facing new challenges should come from your mother. Putin's defeat in the Russo-Ukrainian war just proves that you have very rich, mature political experience and wisdom. I believe you will continue to make new glorious history and I will support you.

Courage also determines the boundaries of spirituality. Just because I am Chinese, I hope my compatriots will be free and happy in the future. In addition, as a global citizen, anyone should have spirituality, and let this world have peace, love, and happiness.

           ......

God bless the USA!

Respectfully yours, 

 

Chenmou Wu

Chenmou Wu: The Heart of Gratitude

 

<The Heart of Gratitude >

11/24/2022 

More than one decade,

 I have been living freely in North America.

When every Thanksgiving Day comes,

I always have a lot of feelings

For how to show my gratitude.

 

Vicissitudes of life,

Leaves a lot of marks on my face.

With the help of my family, relatives

And the blessings of friends,

Everything is worthy of thanks.

 

Fate is so changeable and so elusive,

Even difficult to grasp.

Once a fantastic fate may become past

Then new encounters often arrive unexpectedly.

 

In this world,

There are two kinds of destiny

That is unchanging and indisputable.

They are,

The parents who gave us bodies,

And the God who gives us spirit.

 

Be grateful,

Not be indiscriminate or obscene.

Our parents should get it.

Only Almighty God is most worthy to bear it.

 

 

《红楼梦》作者新考证

 

红楼梦原作者吴梅村

       自清康熙年间，小说《风月宝鉴》书稿就已经在民间秘密传抄。乾隆十九（1754）年成书的甲戌本《红楼梦》详细记载了小说的缘起和成书过程。小说书稿最初由经空空道人抄录，后改《石头记》为《情僧录》，至吴玉峰题名《红楼梦》，再经孔梅溪题为《风月宝鉴》，后经曹雪芹（1715年～1763年）批阅增删之后，曹雪芹题曰《金陵十二钗》，至脂砚斋甲戌（1754）年抄阅评注，小说书名仍用《石头记》。

        乾隆后期，经程伟元（约1745年～1818年）和高鹗（1758年～1815年）二人搜集、整理、编修、活字排印，最终正式以《红楼梦》书名出版问世。正如小说第一百二十回中空空道人所言“不但作者不知，抄者不知，并阅者也不知”，致使《石头记》原作者究竟是谁，自传抄至今，竟然成了一桩扑朔迷离的历史文化公案。

        从清末帝制社会告终， 民国共和肇造开始，皇权专制造成的文字狱现象终于走进了历史。在上世纪初，小说《红楼梦》的出版发行进入了一个前所未有的繁荣阶段。与此同时，文学界对《红楼梦》的研究和原作者的考证逐渐成为了热门显学。愈百年以来，几代红学专家学者和《红楼梦》爱好者们，对于《红楼梦》原作者究竟是谁，存在不少盲人摸象式的认知，故而众说纷纭，争论不休，莫衷一是。据统计，《红楼梦》原作者的可能人选竟达几十人之多，当然很多疑似作者根本经不起推敲，自然不必当真了。那些参与其中的人们，有严谨考证者，有凑热闹者，有起哄者，有张冠李戴者。这种文化乱象既是明清时期的文字狱造成的，也是当下世风浮躁的一种必然结果。

        如今人们对《红楼梦》原作者的研究，形成了几大派系，比如自传派，想象派，编修派等。近年比较活跃的有如皋红学，如果将其划分归类，应当属于想象派了。自传派和想象派都经不起推敲，证据旁征博引，结论难免牵强，甚至有些荒诞。编修派虽然论证了曹雪芹只是编修者，但依旧没有论证出谁是真正的原作者。笔者此前发表的《吴梅村是<红楼梦>原作者考辨》一文中已经做出一些分析和论证。其中也有明显错误之处，此时予以纠正：比如，脂砚斋批的甲戌本应该是出自曹雪芹之手，《石头记》底稿究竟多少回尚不清楚。

        为了厘清史实，正本清源，红学研究者必须运用时空一体的视角，既要尊重史学研究的考证，又要符合文学创作的规律，还要把握小说内容的特点，才能临摹并还原作者的人生轨迹，生活空间，人物面貌，才能去伪存真找出隐藏的原作者。正如《红楼梦》第九十回说道：“心痛还得心药医，解铃还需系铃人”。如今，要推演出真正的原作者，还得分析小说内容，文字风格，艺术造诣等特点去寻找答案，有道是“原作必定藏玄机，考证还得书中推。”

        宋朝苏轼在《答张文潜书》写道：“其为人深不愿人知之，其文如其为人。”简而言之，苏轼的识人之法是：文如其人，人如其文。这完全可以用来推论《红楼梦》的原作者究竟是谁。笔者认为《红楼梦》的内容具有五大基本特点：宗教信仰，文学造诣，批判思想，上层场景，民俗方言等。如果以小说的五大特点作为找寻原作者的五大标准进行推演，再运用排除法逐一将可能会是原作者的候选人进行考评统计。如此一来，原作者的真面目自然就逐渐清晰了。

Women hit the political glass ceiling at China’s Communist Party Congress

         Sun Chunlan, China’s “Iron Lady” and the only woman in the ruling party’s Politburo, is due to step down from her post at the 20th Communist Party Congress this week. There’s no guarantee that another woman will succeed her, providing yet another example of the systemic under-representation of Chinese women in leadership positions, which can have very real consequences for the world’s most populous nation.

Sun Chunlan is a special case in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) galaxy: She is the only woman in the Politburo, the Beijing regime’s powerful executive body. But it’s not for long. Sun is expected to step down from her post during the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress, the weeklong, twice-a-decade meeting, which began on Sunday, October 16. At 72, China’s “Iron Lady” is past the usual retirement age of 68.

The nerve center of Chinese power could therefore be composed solely of men, aggravating a chronic problem of gender underrepresentation in the nation’s halls of power.

Since 2017, Sun has embodied the CCP’s image of a party unafraid to promote women to top positions. She holds the prestigious title of vice premier, one of only four in the 25-member Politburo.

Women hold up half the sky’, but men rule

Sun’s “Iron Lady” moniker has been reinforced over the past two years, since President Xi Jinping appointed her as the country’s top official overseeing China’s Covid-19 pandemic response.

She has been the enforcer of Xi’s "zero-Covid" policy – proof, if proof were needed, that the country’s only female vice premier enjoys the president’s complete confidence to manage one of the most serious health crises confronting the Chinese leader since he came to power in 2012.

But managing the controversial public health policy is not exactly a political gift. Some China experts believe Xi found in Sun an easy “zero-Covid” scapegoat to be sacrificed if his management of the pandemic becomes too contentious. The health dossier has also traditionally been entrusted to women in Communist China; one of Sun’s Politburo predecessors was Wu Yi, who had to deal with the 2003 SARS epidemic.

Nevertheless, Sun’s departure will leave a void in the party’s upper echelons. There are other female candidates for the coveted Politburo post, including Shen Yiqin, the only woman to serve as party general secretary of an entire province, Guizhou, in southern China. Shen also hails from the Bai ethnic minority, “which – cynically speaking – means she simultaneously checks the woman box and the ethnic minority box”, noted the China Project website.

But "nothing obliges the CCP to replace Sun Chunlan with another woman", explained Valarie Tan from the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies (Merics). The likely absence of women in the next Politburo, to be unveiled during the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress, would not be surprising since Sun's position represents the exception to the rule.

In theory, Communist China claims to be one of the most egalitarian regimes in the world. Schoolchildren across the country are familiar with founding father Mao Zedong’s famous "women hold up half the sky" quote reinforcing constitutional equal rights. "From the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, the CCP has placed equality between women and men as one of the characteristics that distinguish the Communist state from the 'old China'," explained Cheng Li, from the Washington-based Brookings Institution, in a report on female representation in Chinese politics.

A very patriarchal party

But the reality is quite different for a country with around 703 million women, constituting 48.7 percent of the total population.

Since 1949, there have been only six women in the CCP Politburo. Three of them were the wives of the founders of Communist China. Among the more than 300 members of the Central Committee – who elect Politburo members and endorse their decisions – there are barely 30 women. In short, only "eight percent of the party's leadership positions have been given to women", noted Tan.

The Politburo – of which Sun is a member – in turn selects the all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee. The current Standing Committee has seven members, none of them women.

This underrepresentation is not due to a lack of Chinese women choosing political careers. Between January 2020 and June 2021, for instance, nearly half of new party members were women.

The 20th Congress could have been the occasion to spearhead the fight against the political glass ceiling since the meeting provides an occasion for a major renewal of the party’s upper echelons. But the chances of significant change in female representation are slim.

For starters, the reasons for male domination in top political positions have not been questioned. The party's executive positions are often reserved for “leaders who had held managerial roles at state-owned enterprises, ministries and regional governments, positions for which women were often bypassed”, noted Minglu Chen, from the University of Sydney’s China Studies Centre, in the South China Morning Post.

Secondly, promotion within the CCP is “entirely based on factional ties rather than individual merits”, Bo Zhiyue, an expert in Chinese elite politics based in New Zealand, told the South China Morning Post. “This has created a very helpless situation because it’s a selection, not an election,” he added.

To rise to the top of the political ladder, aspirants need the right support, and women often have less direct access to those few party figures who can promote their protégés.

Xi is also no champion of women in politics. He embodies "the CCP's very patriarchal approach to society", argues Tan. The end of the one-child policy in 2021 was an opportunity for the Chinese president to insist on the importance of "traditional family values". He has even initiated a campaign to exalt "the unique physical and mental traits [of women] for giving birth and caring for newborns". In other words, the Chinese leader would rather see women at home than in the office.

This lack of women in leadership has important economic and social consequences, noted Tan. "One of the root causes of the current demographic crisis in China is the underrepresentation of women in important positions," she explained. "The problems of almost half the population are not, or barely, represented in the CCP."

And so, the incentive to have children is essentially "money distributed to families, without taking into account the deeper reasons why Chinese women do not want to have more children", explained Tan.

Chinese authorities are also not severe enough when it comes to tackling domestic abuse and violence against women in general, noted Tan. The impunity that some powerful men involved in sexual assault scandals seem to enjoy – such as former vice premier Zhang Gaoli, who is accused of rape by tennis player Peng Shuai – reinforces a “climate that does not make women want to have children", said Tan.

Communist party honchos who have been setting priorities in recent years to encourage people to have more children "could have benefitted from conversations with women on the Standing Committee", noted the China Project, referring to the tiny group of Politburo Standing Committee members selected by the 25-member Politburo. “Too bad there weren’t any.”

This article is a translation from the original in French.

Susan Shirk：Xi Jinping Has Fallen Into the Dictator Trap

     

The Dictator Trap of Xi Jinping

President Xi Jinping’s first decade in power has been a study in hubris. He has purged political rivals and adopted heavy-handed policies that have imperiled China’s economy. He laid the groundwork for a crackdown in the Xinjiang region that drove Muslim citizens into thought reform camps and has alarmed and alienated neighbors with an aggressive foreign policy.

And things just might get worse.

The Chinese Communist Party congress, which opens on Sunday, is expected to hand Mr. Xi another five years as general secretary of the party. Rather than a reassuring sign of continuity, his third term as the top leader of China could spell years of uncertainty as problems mount around an unbound leader who has shown little inclination to share decision-making.

Mr. Xi fell into the same trap that has ensnared dictators throughout history: He overreached. He has concentrated more power in his hands than any Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, looming so completely over the country that he’s been called the “chairman of everything.”

Rivals — real and imagined — have been removed through an extensive anti-corruption campaign. Two more top former officials were jailed last month, accused of financial crimes and disloyalty to Mr. Xi. Mr. Xi has openly accused other politicians of plotting against the party from the outset of his purge ten years ago. He values fealty to himself as more important than competence, and subordinates compete to prove their loyalty by carrying out his policies to the extreme rather than raising harsh truths about negative consequences.

This is precisely the sort of situation that Deng Xiaoping and other former Communist Party leaders had set out to prevent with changes introduced decades ago.

The over-concentration of power in Mao’s hands led to decisions such as his misguided Great Leap Forward, a campaign to greatly increase agrarian and industrial output in the late 1950s that led instead to a devastating famine, and the chaotic political violence of the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution.

After Mao’s death in 1976, Mr. Deng made leadership competition more predictable by introducing term limits and retirement ages for leading posts in the government and military and giving party institutions more authority. A pattern of decade-long reigns set in. But Mr. Deng refused to give China’s legislature and courts authority over the party. Party institutions — their members all appointed by senior leaders — proved to be pushovers for Mr. Xi. No visible resistance was raised when he engineered the abolition of presidential term limits in 2018, which could allow Mr. Xi, who is 69, to stay in power until he dies or is deposed in a power struggle.

The costs of his overreach are piling up.

Mr. Xi, who favors a state-led, centrally controlled economy, began an abrupt crackdown on major Chinese internet companies last year, part of a plan to redistribute wealth and rein in the private sector. That has been put on the back burner for now, but not before it wiped billions of dollars from the valuations of innovative companies and cast a pall over entrepreneurship, exacerbating an extended Chinese economic slowdown.

And while the rest of the world has learned to live with the pandemic, Mr. Xi has stubbornly refused to loosen his zero-tolerance approach. Officials nationwide are overzealously imposing mass lockdowns and surveillance in a bandwagon dynamic that has echoes of the Great Leap Forward, when officials over-complied with Mao’s damaging directives.

The Covid policy has angered citizens and saddled local governments with the huge costs of constant testing and quarantining. Private companies stricken by the disruption and regulatory crackdowns are laying off employees, and college graduates are struggling to find jobs. For the first time in years, unemployment has become a serious political risk for the party, and a tanking Chinese real estate market threatens to pull down the entire economy.

On foreign policy, Mr. Xi abandoned decades of Chinese restraint in favor of a muscular approach designed to restore China’s historical status as a leading power but which is harming its standing in the world.

China has militarized disputed islets in the South China Sea, threatened military action against Taiwan, picked a border fight with India and cut off many imports from Australia after that country’s government called for an international investigation into the origins of the pandemic. Mr. Xi destroyed Hong Kong’s autonomy and has deepened China’s isolation from Europe and the United States by aligning with President Vladimir Putin of Russia just before Mr. Putin launched his brutal invasion of Ukraine.

Countries that could have been Beijing’s valued partners have joined ranks against China in coalitions like the Quad, which groups together the United States, Japan, Australia and India. The United States and some European countries, whose trade and investment inflows were crucial to China’s re-emergence as an economic power, are now apparently less willing to do business. As Germany’s economy minister, Robert Habeck, said of Chinese protectionism and pressure to ignore its human rights abuses, his country would no longer “allow ourselves to be blackmailed.”

The greatest risk now facing China and the world is that the consequences of Mr. Xi’s misrule could lead to a point where he feels compelled to provoke a foreign conflict to divert domestic public attention. Mr. Xi’s continued reluctance to share power also could increase the risk of an internecine split in his third term. The level of dissent within the secretive Communist Party is difficult to gauge, but possible signs of frustration have emerged.

It’s anyone’s guess how much longer Mr. Xi’s rule will last, but there appears no end in sight. The party normally selects a successor five years in advance to groom and introduce him to the Chinese public. But everyone is in the shadow cast by Mr. Xi, who has so far given no hint who his eventual successor might be.

Next week’s congress will be closely watched for clues that other leaders might be allowed to take on more power and responsibility. But that seems unlikely. Mr. Xi is almost certain to stay in character, packing the top leadership with his loyalists. And the more concentrated his power, the greater the hazards for China and the world.

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