Forecast and Analysis of the Russia-Ukraine War ------ On the Disintegration of Russia and Future Opportunities for China

Forecast and Analysis of the Russia-Ukraine War

Chenmou Wu

        Russian has been a name used by the Grand Duchy of Moscow since the end of the 15th century and became the official name after establishing the Russian Tsarist State in 1547. From 1547 to 1945, the Russian Empire began a 400-year history of brutal territorial expansion. 

        In 1949, in response to the extreme expansion of the Soviet Union after World War II, Western countries led by the United States, Britain, and France became the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). 

        In 1955, out of the need for world hegemony, the Soviet Union and the satellite countries became the Warsaw Pact Organization (also known as the Warsaw Pact)). As a result, the post-World War II Russian Empire (the main body of the Soviet Union) entered the pinnacle of its historical development. As the communist world competed with the free world, the Russian Empire began to decline inevitably.

        In 1991, the collapse of the Soviet Communist Party and the dissolution of the Soviet Union signaled the complete end of Russia's history of imperial expansion.

        However, the Soviet Communist Party had fallen, but the Authoritarianism has not died completely; the Soviet Union had collapsed, but Russia has not fallen yet. In 2000, Putin rose from a mediocre KGB to the highest power in Russia, which made the Russian political resurgence plunge into the wrong path of autocratic dictatorship.

        As a result of his fluke success in Crimea in 2014, Putin has started to inflate himself without limits, and perhaps he really thinks he is the most powerful leader in the world today. However, power is poisonous. After twenty-two years of corruption by the supreme power, Putin has long been a brain-damaged patient. Putin, who made a misjudgment, brazenly issued an order to invade Ukraine, and the Russian-Ukrainian war officially broke out. 

        Less than a week after the Russian-Ukrainian War, the initial blitz quickly fell into a tug-of-war between offense and defense. The myth of Russia's super military power was wholly shattered. Judging from the current war situation, Russia, once known as a fighting nation, is no longer vigorous, corrupt, stupid, and decadent. The historical fact is that in the past 20 years, Russia's economy, technology, culture, and other fields have been sluggish, and now the military performance is terrible.

        In front of the harsh reality, the incompetence and recklessness of Putin and the corruption and backwardness of the Russian army were utterly exposed. The devastated Putin then issued a nuclear threat. Putin said: "If Russia does not exist anymore, what do we need the world for?" These are the words of a war criminal, but there is clearly something seriously wrong with his psychology and spirit. With this word, Putin is already the public enemy of all mankind.

        In the Russo-Ukrainian war, although Russia is powerful, it represents evil; although Ukraine is weak, it represents justice. Democracies worldwide are on the side of Ukraine and support the Ukrainian people in various ways to defend their country and defend democracy and freedom. The Russo-Ukrainian war is a national war in Ukraine, which will inevitably end in the rout of Russia.

        On why Putin started the war in Ukraine, he has made two televised speeches, talking a lot about the history of Russia and Ukraine, which is smart aleck but actual foolish acts. Due to Russia's history of aggressive expansion, Putin's unjustified excuse for invading Ukraine is the legitimate reason for other neighboring countries to ask Russia for the return of their territories. Just like two slang words in the United States: Stupid is stupid dose! Ugly is as ugly dose. 

        During the expansion of the Russian Empire, in modern times, China was the country that lost the most territory and suffered the most from the Soviet Communist Revolution. The Republic of China, as the victorious nation in World War I and World War II, was fully entitled to reclaim all the plundered territories. On March 2, 2022, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida formally mentioned the issue of the ownership of the four northern islands in the upper house of the Tokyo parliament.

        In the Russian-Ukrainian war, Taiwan, The Republic of China should support Ukraine unreservedly morally. Once Russia is defeated or even disintegrated, as the only legitimate representative of China, Taiwan will create opportunities and conditions to recover lost land sovereignty. 

        It is deplorable that after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the CCP wrongly implemented the national defense and foreign policy of tying a war chariot with Russia again. This is an isolated and short-sighted decision, and it is also an extremely stupid and selfish behavior. Regardless of whether it is for the benefit of the nation and the country or to uphold the conscience and justice of mankind, in any case, the CCP authorities should stand on the side of righteous Ukraine and work with Western democracies to firmly oppose Russia's aggression.

        At the appropriate time, The Government of the Republic of China should consider formally submitting to Russia its legitimate demand for the claims of the territories in the Outer Northeast of China, especially the port of Vladivostok. The government of Taiwan is not just a local government representing 23 million Taiwanese, but the government of the legitimate Republic of China, representing all Chinese people.

        The decline and collapse of the Russian Empire are inevitable and will inevitably usher in the historical fate of complete disintegration. In the present and future, the neighboring nation-states will undoubtedly claim the recovery of the territories from the Russian Empire's unjust expansion in the past.

        Since Russia cannot occupy entire Ukraine at present, the CCP state will not be able to annex the Republic of China in Taiwan in the future. This historical destiny cannot be controlled by the isolated island of Taiwan but is jointly dominated by democratic countries around the world. The Republic of China, which has now achieved democratic politics, has the support of democratic countries behind Taiwan!